NBA Line Projections – 7 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Made a typo for basic model moneyline. record should be 183-117, 61%.

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Pacers, Celtics, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Hawks, & Nuggets.

Note: Kevin Durant will be returning tonight for the Nets after his extended absence.

Wolves/Pacers: Malik Beasley has been out the past 2 games for the Wolves after coming back for only 4 games since his injury. He is expected to be out several weeks, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Brogdon is listed as a GTD for the Pacers after missing the past 3 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Sabonis is again a GTD, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Myles Turner is a GTD as well, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Wolves are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Pacers are 6-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Pacers are also 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Magic: Bradley Beal is a GTD for the Wizards after missing the past 5 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Hachimura is a GTD as well after missing the past 2 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Magic are coming off of a 2-day rest. Carter-Williams is a GTD after missing the past 3 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Wizards are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 4-6 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/Celtics: Knicks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Tristan Thompson is listed as a GTD for the Celtics, but it will not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Fournier is out due to illness, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Kemba Walker is also out for rest and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Knicks are 5-5 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 7-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Celtics are also 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Nets: Brandon Ingram is a GTD for the Pelicans after missing the past 4 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Alexander-Walker is out again, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Josh Hart is also out for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence is partially reflected in the stats. Kevin Durant is officially returning for today’s game, but his return will not be reflected in the stats. James Harden is out, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Pelicans are 3-6 straight up, 4-5 ATS, and 6-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Pelicans are also 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 7-3 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Hawks: Ja Morant is listed as a GTD for the Grizzlies after sustaining an injury in last night’s game. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. John Collins is out for the Hawks for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Grizzlies are 3-5 straight up and ATS, and are 5-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Grizzlies are also 7-3 straight up, 9-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Hawks are 4-5 straight up, 4-4-1 ATS, and 5-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Hawks are also 6-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Mavericks/Rockets: Porzingis is listed as a GTD for the Mavericks after missing the past 2 games. He is expected to play, but his absence would only be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Maxi Kleber is also a GTD, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. John Wall is a GTD for the Rockets after missing the past 4 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Danuel House is out again and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Mavericks are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Thunder: Hornets are coming off of a 2-day rest. LaMelo Ball is out for his 9th consecutive game, and his absence will now be fully reflected in the stats until he returns. Gordon Hayward is still out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Malik Monk is also out, and he has missed 4 out of the last 8 games, his his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Dort is out for his 6th consecutive game for the Thunder, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Gilgeous-Alexander will be out for his 8th consecutive game, and his absence is mostly reflected in the stats. Isaiah Roby is out again, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Hornets are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 1-9 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Nuggets: Dejounte Murray is a GTD for the Spurs, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Lonnie Walker is out for his 9th consecutive game, and his absence will now be fully reflected in the stats until he returns. Jamal Murray is a GTD for the Nuggets, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Spurs are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 3-4 straight up and ATS, and are 4-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Nuggets are also 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Suns: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Jazz are 9-1 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 9-1 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available yet this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Thunder +6 & Suns +3.5.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pelicans +10.5 & Nuggets -6.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards/Magic Under 225.5, Hornets/Thunder Under 214, & Spurs/Nuggets Under 223.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 65% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 62% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 61% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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