NBA Line Projections – 8 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

I will regularly post updates throughout the day and annotate with a “*”.

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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Thunder, Mavs, Suns, & Jazz.

Lakers/Heat: Drummond is a GTD, but expected to be back for the Lakers, and his return would not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Kyle Kuzma is also a GTD, but is listed as probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Tyler Herro is a GTD for the Heat, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Lakers are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Raptors: Zach LaVine is a GTD for the Bulls, and is probable, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Lauri Markkanen is also a GTD and probable, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Coby White is a GTD and is probable, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kyle Lowry is still out for the Raptors, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. VanVleet is out again for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bulls are 3-7 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Raptors are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Cavs/Thunder: Cavs are coming off of a 2-day rest. Jarrett Allen is still out for the Cavs for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Larry Nance is also out for his 5th consecutive game and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats as well. Darius Bazley is listed as a GTD after missing the past several weeks. His return would not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Dort is also listed as a GTD after missing the past 6 consecutive games. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Aleksej Pokusevski is a GTD, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Isaiah Roby is also a GTD and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Gilgeous-Alexander has now been out for 8 games, so his absence will be fully reflected in the stats until he returns. Cavs are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 5-6 straight up, 4-6-1 ATS, and 7-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Thunder are also 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Mavericks: Giannis is listed as GTD for the Bucks, and is doubtful. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Maxi Kleber is a GTD for the Mavericks after being out yesterday. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Bucks are 6-4 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 3-6 straight up and ATS, and 4-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Mavericks are also 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Clippers: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Patrick Beverly returned for limited minutes in the previous game for the Clippers, so his return will not be reflected in the stats. Suns are 9-2 straight up, 8-3 ATS, and 6-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Suns are also 9-1 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Kings: Jerami Grant is out for the Pistons, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Kings are coming off of a 2-day rest and have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Kings are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Blazers/Jazz: Norman Powell is a GTD for the Blazers, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jusuf Nurkic had returned after being absent for an extended period of time, but is a GTD for today’s game. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jazz have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Blazers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 8-1 straight up, 7-2 ATS, and 4-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Jazz are also 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available yet this morning.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Blazers +7.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons/Kings Over 226, Suns/Clippers Under 225, Lakers/Heat Under 206, & Blazers/Jazz Under 231.5 (small).

Mid Day

Sorry its late, got busy at work. Posted 1:30pm CST

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Mavs -1, Kings -5, and Clippers -5.

O/U – Some buyback on the Blazers/Jazz Over 231. Sharp money also on Suns/Clippers Under 223.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 65% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 63% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 61% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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