NBA Line Projections – 9 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Bulls, Bucks, & Clippers.

Quick Thoughts: Heard this nugget on the radio, with Curry on the floor this season the Warriors offense is ranked right around 13th-15th. When Curry is not on the floor, the Warriors offense ranks worst among all teams over the last 5 seasons. Curry has missed 4 of the last 8 games, so the stats on the Warriors and the Under may be misleading.

Pacers/Magic: Malclm Brogdon is a GTD for the Pacers after missing the past 4 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Sabonis is also a GTD after missing the past 3 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Myles Turner is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Magic have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Pacers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 3-7 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Wolves/Celtics: Okogie is a GTD for the Wolves and is expected to play. He has missed 4 out of the last 8 games, so it will be partially reflected in the stats if he plays. Malik Beasley is out again for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Fournier is out again for his 3rd consecutive game for the Celtics, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Wolves are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Knicks: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Grizzlies are 7-3 straight up, 9-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 4-6 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Hawks: Garrett Temple is a GTD for the Bulls after missing the past 5 consecutive games. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Clint Capela is a GTD for the Hawks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Danilo Gallinari is also a GTD, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. John Collins is out for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bulls are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Bulls are also 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Hawks are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Pelicans: 76ers are coming off of a 2-day rest, and they have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Lonzo Ball is a GTD for the Pelicans, but he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Brandon Ingram is a GTD as well and has missed the last 5 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Alexander-Walker is out again for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be only partially reflected in the stats. Josh Hart is out as well for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. 76ers are 7-3 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Nuggets: Lonnie Walker has missed the past few weeks, but is listed as a GTD for the Spurs. It will not be reflected in the stats if he returns. Jamal Murray is a GTD for the Nuggets after missing the past 2 games, so his absence would only be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Spurs are 2-8 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hornets/Bucks: Gordon Hayward is still out for the Hornets, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Malik Monk is also out for his 4th consecutive game, but he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games, so his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Giannis is a GTD for the Bucks after missing the past 3 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Hornets are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Bucks are 4-3 straight up, 3-4 ATS, and 2-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Bucks are also 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Warriors: Bradley Beal is a GTD for the Wizards, but is probable. He has missed 5 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Warriors are coming off of a 2-day rest. See the quick note above for Steph Curry’s impact on today’s game. He has missed 4 out of the last 8 games. Wizards are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Rockets/Clippers: Danuel House is out for the Rockets, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. John Wall is out for rest, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats because he has missed 4 out of the last 8 games. Patrick Beverley has been back for the Clippers for the past 2 games, but his return is not fully reflected in the stats due to his previous extended absence. Rockets are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 8-1 straight up and ATS, and 3-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Clippers are also 8-2 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

Not much betting data available yet this morning.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Rockets/Clippers Under 226.5.

Mid Day

ATS – Som Sharp money has come in on the Pelicans +7.5 & Nuggets -7.

O/U – Som Shar money has come in on the Grizzlies/Knicks Over 213.5, Wolves/Celtics Under 228 (small), & 76ers/Pelicans Over 225.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 65% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 63% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 61% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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