NBA Line Projections – 10 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: 76ers, Rockets, Warriors, & Wizards.

Raptors/Cavs: Kyle Lowry is a GTD for the Rockets after missing the past 5 consecutive games. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. VanVleet is out for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Jarrett Allen is still out for the Cavs for his 7th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Larry Nance is also out for his 6th consecutive game and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Raptors are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-5-1 tot he over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Nets: Alex Caruso is a GTD for the Lakers, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kyle Kuzma is also a GTD, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kevin Durant is back for the Nets, but his return will not be accurately reflected in the stats. James Harden is out, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Lakers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 8-2 straight up, and 3-7 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Thunder: Joel Embiid is a GTD for the 76ers, but his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play because he has missed 5 out of the past 8 games. Bazley is a GTD for the Thunder after his extended absence, so his return would not be reflected in the stats if he does play. Dort is also a GTD after missing the past few weeks, and it will not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Isaiah Roby is a GTD after missing the past 3 consecutive games, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. 76ers are 4-5 straight up, 2-6-1 ATS, and 4-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. 76ers are also 6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 2-8 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Jazz: Neither team has any absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Kings are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Rockets/Warriors: John Wall is playing for the Rockets today, but he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games, so his return will not be accurately reflected in the stats. Danuel House is out again for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. As a reminder, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors after his absence, and his return will be partially reflected in the stats. Rockets are 4-5 straight up, 6-3 ATS, and 4-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Rockets are also 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 3-8 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Warriors are also 2-8 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Suns: Bradley Beal is a GTD for the Wizards, but he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Wizards are 5-7 straight up, and 8-4 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Wizards are also 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Blazers: Jerami Grant is out, but he is still listed as a GTD for the Pistons. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Mason Plumlee is a GTD as well, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he dos not play. Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Lakers +12.5, Jazz -11.5, Pistons +12, & Suns -10.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Lakers/Nets Under 223.

Mid Day

Posted about 12:00pm CST

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 66% ML, 55% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 63% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 62% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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