NBA Line Projections – 11 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

Advertisements

Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

Advertisements

Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

*Variance will be posted tomorrow, I am busy today.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Advertisements

Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Raptors, Cavs, Pistons, & Blazers.

Hawks/Hornets: Trae Young is a GTD for the Hawks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Danilo Gallinari is a GTD, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. John Collins is out for his 7th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Gordon Hayward is out for the Hornets for his 4th straight game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Malik Monk is out again as well, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats because he has missed 6 out of the last 8 games. Hawks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 7-3 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Celtics/Nuggets: Jaylen Brown is listed as a GTD for the Celtics, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jayson Tatum is also a GTD, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Fournier is still out for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Jamal Murray is a GTD for the Nuggets after missing the past 3 games, so his absence would  be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Celtics are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 9-1 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Magic: Donte DiVincenzo is a GTD for the Bucks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jrue Holiday is listed as a GTD, but is probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are also GTDs and probable, and their absences would not be reflected in the stats if they do not play. Giannis is a GTD and doubtful, but his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play as he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games. Chuma Okeke is a GTD for the Magic, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Bucks are 4-6 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 3-7 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Cavs: Nickeil Alexander-Walker is out again for his 4th consecutive game for the Pelicans, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Lonzo Ball is out as well, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats because he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games. Josh Hart is out for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Jarrett Allen is out for his 8th consecutive game for the Cavs, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Larry Nance is out for his 7th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Pelicans are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 5-6 straight up, 6-5 ATS, and 2-9 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Cavs are also 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Knicks: Kyle Lowry is a GTD for the Raptors and is probable. He has missed 7 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. VanVleet is also a GTD after missing the past 4 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Knicks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Raptors are 1-10 straight up, 3-8 ATS, and 7-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Raptors are also 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Wolves: Garrett Temple is listed as a GTD for the Bulls, but he is doubtful, and his absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Malik Beasley is out for the Wolves for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bulls are 3-7 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Wolves are 3-7 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Mavericks: Spurs have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Mavericks are coming off of a 2-day rest. Maxi Kleber is a GTD for the Mavericks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Spurs are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pacers/Grizzlies: Myles Turner is a GTD for the Pacers, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Grizzlies have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Pacers are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Blazers: Tyler Herro is a GTD for the Heat, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Oladipo is out, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats since he has missed 4 out of the past 8 games. Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Heat are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 7-4 straight up, 6-5 ATS, and 7-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Blazers are also 6-4 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Clippers: Jerami Grant is a GTD for the Pistons, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Patrick Beverley is out for the Clippers after returning from his extended absence for only 2 games. His absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kawhi Leonard is out for rest, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats.  Pistons are 3-8 straight up, 7-4 ATS, and 6-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Pistons are also 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 8-2 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Advertisements

Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Spurs +6.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Hawks/Hornets Under 221.5, Pelicans/Cavs Under 230, Bulls/Wolves Over 230, & Heat/Blazers Under 223.

Mid Day

No late sharp report today, sorry folks.

Advertisements

Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

Advertisements

Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 66% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 63% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Advertisements

3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 62% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s