NBA Line Projections – 12 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

NOTICE: I will be out of town on vacation starting tomorrow through 22 April. Game breakdowns and Sharp Reports will not be available during this time (unless I get bored). I will still post projections, edge, team trends, and records.

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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Variance

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Suns score (typically) will deviate about 9.97 points from there average on a given night, where the Cavs score (typically) will deviate 14.24 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Knicks, T-Wolves, Spurs, Magic, Mavericks, Bulls, Grizzlies, Pelicans, & Nuggets.

76ers/Mavericks: Joel Embiid’s return to the 76ers is still not accurately reflected in the stats as he has only played 4 out of the last 8 games. Tobias Harris is a GTD, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Maxi Kleber is a GTD for the Mavericks, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. 76ers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 4-6 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Mavericks are also 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Knicks: Kyle Kuzma is a GTD after missing the past 2 games for the Lakers. His absence would be only partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Knicks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Lakers are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Knicks are also 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nets/Wolves: LaMarcus Aldridge is out for the Nets, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats since he has played 5 out of the last 8 games. James Harden is out again, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Kyrie Irving is out for personal reasons, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Kevin Durant’s return is only slightly reflected in the stats since he has only been back for 2 games. Malik Beasley is out again for the Wolves for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Nets are 7-3 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Wolves are 3-9 straight up, 5-6-1 ATS, and 6-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Wolves are also 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Magic: Spurs have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Chuma Okeke is a GTD for the Magic after missing the previous game, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Spurs are 2-7 straight up, and 4-5 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Spurs are also 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 5-5 straight up, and 7-3 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Magic are also 3-7 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Pelicans: Kings have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Lonzo Ball is listed as a GTD for the Pelicans after missing the past 2 games, but his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play because he has played 3 out of the last 8 games. Alexander-Walker is out again for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Josh Hart is still out as well for his 7th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kings are 4-6 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Pelicans are also 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Jazz: Bradley Beal is a GTD for the Wizards and is probable. He has played 2 out of the last 8 games, so his return would be partially reflected in the stats if he plays. Jordan Clarkson is a GTD for the Jazz after missing the past 2 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Mike Conley is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Wizards are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 8-2 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Grizzlies: Garrett Temple is listed as a GTD for the Bulls, but his return would not be reflected in the stats if he does play. Grizzlies have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Bulls are 3-8 straight up, and 5-6 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Bulls are also 3-7 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Grizzlies are 4-5 straight up and ATS, and are 6-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Grizzlies are also 5-5 straight up, and 7-3 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Warriors: Jamal Murray is a GTD for the Nuggets after missing the past 4 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kelly Oubre is out for the Warriors, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Nuggets are 4-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Nuggets are also 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 3-7 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Rockets/Suns: Danuel House is out again for the Rockets for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Rockets are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Kings +4 (small).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Spurs/Magic Under 223, Nets/Wolves Under 240, Kings/Pelicans Under 237, & Bulls/Grizzlies Under 230.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Nuggets -2, 79ers -1, Spurs -6, & Rockets +12.5 (small)

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 65% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 62% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 62% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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