NBA Line Projections – 13 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

NOTICE: I will be out of town on vacation starting 13 April through 22 April. Game breakdowns and Sharp Reports will not be available during this time (unless I get bored). I will still post projections, edge, team trends, and records.

Just got a notification that the Nets/Wolves are playing tonight. No projections for that game. I will be traveling all day.

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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Back to back: Lakers, Jazz, & Suns.

Clippers/Pacers: Patrick Beverly is still out for the Clippers, but his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats because he has played 2 out of the last 8 games. Kawhi Leonard is also out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Myles Turner is out for his 4th consecutive game for the Pacers, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Clippers are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Pacers are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Raptors: Trae Young is a GTD for the Hawks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Gallinari is a GTD as well, but his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play because he has missed 3 out of the last 8 games. John Collins will be out again for his 8th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kyle Lowry is back for the Raptors, but his return will not be accurately reflected in the stats because of his previous absence. Hawks are 7-3 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Raptors are 3-7 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Hornets: Lakers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. PJ Washington is a GTD for the Hornets, but is expected to play. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Gordon Hayward is out again for the Hornets for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Malik Monk is out again as well, but his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats because he has not played 7 out of the last 8 games. Lakers are 4-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Lakers are also 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Jazz: Thunder are coming off of a 2-day rest. Bazley and Dort have returned for the Thunder, but their return will not be accurately reflected in the stats as they have both missed 7 out of the last 8 games. Aleksej Pokusevski is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Isaiah Roby is out again for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Mike Conley is listed as a GTD for the Jazz, but his absence would not be  reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jordan Clarkson is also a GTD after missing the last 3 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Thunder are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 4-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Jazz are also 7-3 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Suns: Oladipo is out for the Heat, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Suns have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Heat are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Suns are 9-3 straight up, 8-4 ATS, and 6-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Suns are also 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Celtics/Blazers: Fournier is a GTD for the Celtics after missing the past 4 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Celtics are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 6-4 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

Early Money

No early report, Flying this morning.

Mid Day

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers -1, Lakers +1, & Thunder +17.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers/Pacers Over 228.5 & Lakers/Hornets Under 207.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

Record

Record: 49% ATS, 65% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Record

Record: 48% ATS, 62% ML, 57% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Record

Record: 50% ATS, 62% ML, 54% O/U.

ATS
O/U

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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