NBA Line Projections – 21 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


NOTICE: I will be out of town on vacation starting 13 April through 22 April. Game breakdowns and Sharp Reports will not be available during this time (unless I get bored). I will still post projections, edge, team trends, and records.

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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back-to-back: Wolves, Hawks, Knicks, Blazers, Clippers, and Nets.

Warriors/Wizards: Warriors have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Rui Hachimura is out for the Wizards, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Warriors are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Cavs: Zach LaVine will be out for the Bulls for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Cavs have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Bulls are 5-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Pacers: Dort is a GTD for the Thunder. He has played 4 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Isaiah Roby is out, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats because he has played 4 out of the last 8 games. Goga Bitadze is a GTD for the Pacers, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Sabonis is out, but his absence will not be accurately reflected in the stats. Myles Turner is out as well, but since he has played in 1 out of the last 8 games, his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Thunder are 0-10 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Pacers are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/76ers: Dario Saric is listed as a GTD for the Suns, but probable, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Tobias Harris is a GTD for the 76ers after missing the past 2 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Ben Simmons is also a GTD, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Suns are 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. 76ers are 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nets/Raptors: Kevin Durant is a GTD for the Nets, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. James Harden is still out, and his absence will now be fully reflected in the stats. Raptors are coming off of a 2-day rest, and have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Kyle Lowry is set to play after missing the past several games, but his return will not be accurately reflected in the stats. VanVleet is also back, and his return will not be reflected in the stats. Nets are 6-5 straight up, 5-6 ATS, and 6-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Nets are also 6-4 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Raptors are 6-4 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Knicks: Danilo Gallinari is a GTD for the Hawks after missing the past 5 consecutive games. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Alec Burks is a GTD for the Knicks after missing the past 3 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Hawks are 4-6 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Hawks are also 8-2 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 6-5 straight up, 7-4 ATS, and 5-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Knicks are also 7-3 straight up, 9-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Rockets: Donovan Mitchell is out for the Jazz after missing the past 2 games, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Sterling Brown is out for the Rockets after missing the past 5 consecutive games, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Jazz are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Mavericks: Killian Hayes is out for the Pistons for rest, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Mavericks are coming off of a 2-day rest. Tim Hardaway is a GTD for the Mavericks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play.  Pistons are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Spurs: Adebayo is a GTD for the Heat, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jimmy Butler is also a GTD after missing the past 2 games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Tyler Herro is a GTD, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Oladipo is still out for his 7th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Spurs have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Heat are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Clippers: Dillon Brooks is a GTD for the Grizzlies, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jonas Valanciunas is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Kawhi Leonard is out for the Clippers, but his absence will be partially reflected in the stats because he has missed 5 out of the last 8 games. Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up, and 8-2 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 10-1 straight up, 9-1-1 ATS, and 4-7 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Clippers are also 8-2 straight up, 7-2-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Timberwolves/Kings: Jaylen Nowell is a GTD for the Wolves after missing the past 3 consecutive games. His absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. De’Aaron Fox is a GTD for the Kings, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Richaun Holmes is a GTD as well after missing the past 4 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Wolves are 3-10 straight up, 5-7-1 ATS, and 7-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Wolves are also 3-7 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Kings are 1-9 straight up, and 3-7 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Blazers: Nuggets have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Damian Lillard is listed as a GTD for the Blazers after missing the past 3 consecutive games, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 7-5 straight up, 6-6 ATS, and 7-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Blazers are also 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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