NBA Line Projections – 24 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Back to Back: Heat, Rockets, Nuggets

Raptors/Knicks: Raptors are coming off a 2-day rest. Chris Boucher is out for the Raptors, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Knicks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Raptors are 6-4 straight up, and 5-5 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games. Knicks are 8-2 straight up, 10-0 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Bucks: Embiid is a GTD for the 76ers, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Ben Simmons is out as well for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bucks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Giannis has been back for the past 4 games, but his return is not fully reflected in the stats. 76ers are 5-5 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Bucks are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pistons/Pacers: Jerami Grant is a GTD for the Pistons and is listed as probable. He has played 3 out of the last 8 games, so his absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Pacers are coming off a 2-day rest. Goga Bitadze is a GTD for the Pacers, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Sabonis is out for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be slightly reflected in the stats. Myles Turner is out again. He has played in 1 of the last 8 games, so his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Pacers are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Pelicans: DeMar DeRozan is a GTD for the Spurs, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Steven Adams is a GTD for the Pelicans and is listed as probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Lonzo Ball’s return is still only partially reflected in the stats since he has played in 4 out of the last 8 games. Spurs are 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Pelicans are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Heat: Patrick Williams is a GTD for the Bulls and is probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Zach LaVine is still out for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Oladipo is out for the Heat for his 9th consecutive game, and his absence will now be fully reflected in the stats. Bulls are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Heat are 5-5 straight up, and 6-4 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Heat are also 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Mavericks: Anthony Davis is a GTD for the Lakers and is probable. He returned in the previous game with limited minutes, so it would not be accurately reflected in the stats if he does play. Andre Drummond is a GTD and is probable as well, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Markieff Morris and Dennis Schroder are GTDs and probable, but their absences would not be reflected in the stats if they do not play. Caldwell-Pope is listed as a GTD as well, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Maxi Kleber and Porzingis are both GTDs for the Mavericks, but their absences would not be reflected in the stats if they do not play. Lakers are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wolves/Jazz: Wolves are coming off a 2-day rest. Wolves also have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Donovan Mitchell is out for the Jazz for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Wolves are 4-6 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 6-4 straight up, and 4-6 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Rockets/Nuggets: Christian Wood is a GTD for the Rockets and is not expected to play. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Avery Bradley is a GTD, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Sterling Brown is out for his 8th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kevin Porter is out again for his 3rd consecutive game, and his absence will be slightly reflected in the stats. John Wall is out as well for rest, and his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Rockets are 4-7 straight up, 6-5 ATS, and 5-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Rockets are also 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Nuggets are 4-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Nuggets are also 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. 

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Sharp Report

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pistons +5.5, Bulls +7, & Nuggets -12.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Raptors/Knicks Under 217.5, 76ers/Bucks Under 230.5, Pistons/Pacers Over 224.5, Bulls/Heat Under 210, & Rockets/Nuggets Under 225.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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