MLB Line Projections – 25 Apr 21

[Disclaimer] There have only been a handful of games played for each team which limits the amount and quality of stats (and these are stat based projections). This makes the first month of projections WILD. Best of luck!

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

Like what you see? Please subscribe or follow me on Twitter (@AnalyticsB2) for the latest news and post info. Want to support the statistical data or have suggestions for improvement, feel free to send me an email (B2SportsStats@gmail.com) or you can donate via the website, Venmo (@B2stats) or Cashapp ($B2stats).

Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release.


NOTE: The code that pulls Vegas game lines, may not be able to distinguish the double headers so the two listed lines may be the same and subsequently wrong for 1 of the games (Pulls the data based on team name).

All double headers are accounted for being 7 innings.

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Summary of Projections

Model Record

Model Rank

Consensus Record

Consensus Profitability

Model Consensus

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Sharp Report

ML – Some Sharp money has come in on the Mets (small), Tigers, Astros, Cubs, & Rockies.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the A’s/Orioles Over 8, Mariners/Red Sox Under 9, Yankees/Indians Under 8.5, Pirate/Twins Under 8.5, Reds/Cardinals Under 8, & Brewers/Cubs Under 7.

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Model Projections

1. SVM

Model Projections

No line is up on the MIA/SFG game.

When I ran the simulations yesterday evening, the ARI/ATL game was not a double header so only 1 game is listed, but the projection does account for it being 7 innings.

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

*Added first 5 inning projections.

Betting edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

New Model Projections

No line is up on the MIA/SFG game.

When I ran the simulations yesterday evening, the ARI/ATL game was not a double header so only 1 game is listed, but the projection does account for it being 7 innings.

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

*Added first 5 inning projections.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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