NBA Line Projections – 25 Apr 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats. Variance stats posted in Sundays reports.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Game Breakdown

Back to Back: Bucks & Pacers.

Celtics/Hornets: Robert Williams is out for the Celtics for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Hornets have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Celtics are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Nets: Suns are coming off a 2-day rest. Jae Crowder is out for the Suns, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Kevin Durant is a GTD for the Nets and is listed as probable. He has played in 4 of the last 8 games, so his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Suns are 7-3 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Nets are 6-4 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Blazers: Jonas Valanciunas is a GTD for the Grizzlies after missing the past 3 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Damian Lillard’s return will be mostly reflected in the stats after he was out for 3 games. Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. Blazers are 2-8 straight up, and 4-6 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Cavs/Wizards: Collin Sexton is out for the Cavs, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Hachimura is out again for the Wizards for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Cavs are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Wizards are also 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bucks/Hawks: Bucks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Giannis has played in the past 5 games since his return, and this will be partially reflected in the stats. Clint Capela is a GTD for the Hawks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Trae Young is out again, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Bucks are 5-4 straight up, 4-5 ATS, and 3-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Bucks are also 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Hawks are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pacers/Magic: Sabonis is listed as a GTD for the Pacers after missing the past 3 consecutive games. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Myles Turner is out. He has played in 1 out of the last 8 games, so his absence will be almost fully reflected in the stats. Magic are coming off of a 2-day rest. Wendell Carter is a GTD for the Magic, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. James Ennis is also a GTD after missing the past 3 consecutive games, but his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Carter-Williams is out for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Pacers are 8-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Pacers are also 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 1-9 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Warriors: Kings are coming off a 3-day rest. Richaun Holmes is a GTD after missing the past 5 consecutive games and is likely to play. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. De’Aaron Fox is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Warriors have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Kings are 2-8 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Warriors are 7-3 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Suns +2.5.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Celtics/Hornets Under 215.5, Cavs/Wizards Under 228.5, Bucks/Hawks Under 228.5, & Pacers/Magic Over 224.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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