**[Disclaimer]** There have only been a handful of games played for each team which limits the amount and quality of stats (and these are stat based projections). This makes the first month of projections WILD. Best of luck!

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

Like what you see? Please subscribe or follow me on Twitter (@AnalyticsB2) for the latest news and post info. Want to support the statistical data or have suggestions for improvement, feel free to send me an email (B2SportsStats@gmail.com) or you can donate via the website, Venmo (@B2stats) or Cashapp ($B2stats).

**Next Project:** Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release.

All double headers are accounted for being 7 innings.

*Updates and changes to models coming 2 May (may not be reflected until 3 May’s report). It’s time to start fine tuning it and getting it dialed in.

## Summary of Projections

#### Model Record

#### Model Rank

#### Consensus Record

#### Consensus Profitability

#### Model Consensus

## Sharp Report

Posted about 12:00pm Mountain Time

## Team Variance

Updated every Sunday.

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 1 and 2 runs every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 0 to 10 runs on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Mets score (typically) will deviate about 1.90 runs from there average on a given night, where the Cubs score (typically) will deviate 4.40 runs from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

## Bet Ratings

Going to take a few days to a week to play around with this and get it to perform better. I don’t want to keep posting when it continues to perform poorly.

Check back later this weekend/early next week.

# Model Projections

## 1. SVM

#### Model Projections

Mike Fiers is getting his first start so all of his stats default to league average for todays projection.

No lines up on the MIA/WSN game or the LAD/MIL game.

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

*Added first 5 inning projections.

#### Betting edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

## 2. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)

#### New Model Projections

Mike Fiers is getting his first start so all of his stats default to league average for todays projection.

No lines up on the MIA/WSN game or the LAD/MIL game.

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

*Added first 5 inning projections.

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.