NBA Line Projections – 1 May 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

Like what you see? Please subscribe or follow me on Twitter (@AnalyticsB2) for the latest news and post info. Want to support the statistical data or have suggestions for improvement, feel free to send me an email (B2SportsStats@gmail.com) or you can donate via the website, Venmo (@B2stats) or Cashapp ($B2stats).

Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Variance

Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is nba_var-1.png

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Jazz score (typically) will deviate about 9.74 points from there average on a given night, where the Warriors score (typically) will deviate 13.98 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Back to back: Jazz, Hawks, Wizards, Cavs, Magic, Grizzlies, Bulls

Pistons/Hornets: Jerami Grant is out for the Pistons. He has played in only 4 of the last 8 games, so his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Cory Joseph is also out, and he has played in only 4 of the last 8 games so his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Hornets are coming off a 2-day rest. LaMelo Ball is listed as a GTD for the Hornets after his extended absence, but his return would not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Malik Monk is also listed as a GTD after his extended absence, and his return would not be reflected in the stats if he plays. Pistons are 3-7 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 3-7 straight up, ATS, and to the over in the last 10 games.

Warriors/Rockets: Draymond Green is a GTD for the Warriors, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kelly Oubre is a GTD as well, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. John Wall is still out for the Rockets, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Danuel House is out again, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats since he has played in only 2 of the last 8 games. Warriors are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 2-8 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pacers/Thunder: Malcolm Brogdon is a GTD for the Pacers, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Sabonis is also a GTD after missing the past 6 consecutive games, so his absence would be mostly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Myles Turner is still out, and his absence will be almost fully reflected in the stats. Dort is out for the Thunder, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Pacers are 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 1-9 straight up, and 4-6 ATS and to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Cavs: Heat are coming off a 2-day rest. Tyler Herro is out for the Heat after missing the past 3 consecutive games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats since he has played in only 4 of the last 8 games. Darius Garland is a GTD for the Cavs, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Collin Sexton is back in the starting lineup after missing 3 games, so his return will be mostly reflected in the stats. Heat are 5-5 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Cavs are 5-9 straight up, 7-7 ATS, and 3-11 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Cavs are also 2-8 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Pelicans/Wolves: Steven Adams is out for the Pelicans, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Wolves have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Pelicans are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Wolves are 6-4 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Magic: Grayson Allen is out for the Grizzlies, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Carter-Williams is a GTD for the Magic after missing the past 8 consecutive games. His absence will be fully reflected in the stats if he does not play. Chuma Okeke is also a GTD, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Grizzlies are 6-6 straight up and ATS, and are 7-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Grizzlies are also 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Magic are 5-7 straight up, 7-4-1 ATS, and 9-3 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Magic are also 2-8 straight up, 2-7-1 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games.

Bulls/Hawks: Bulls have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats since LaVine’s absence is now fully reflected in the stats. Trae Young’s return is only going to be partially reflected in the stats. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a GTD after missing the past 2 games, but his absence would be only slightly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kevin Huerter is also a GTD after missing the past 2 games, and his absence would be slightly reflected in the stats if he does not play. Bulls are 5-9 straight up, 7-7 ATS, and 5-9 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Bulls are also 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Hawks are 4-8 straight up, 4-7-1 ATS, and 7-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Hawks are also 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Mavericks: Wizards have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Hachimura’s return is still only partially reflected in the stats.  Maxi Kleber is a GTD for the Mavericks, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Porzingis is also listed as a GTD, and his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Wizards are 6-9 straight up, 9-6 ATS, and 10-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Wizards are also 9-1 straight up, 8-2 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Clippers: Will Barton is out for the Nuggets after missing the past 4 consecutive games. His absence will be partially reflected in the stats.  Clippers are coming off a 2-day rest. Kawhi Leonard is a GTD for the Clippers, but since he has played in only 1 of the last 8 games, his absence would be almost fully reflected in the stats if he does not play. Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Clippers are 7-3 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Jazz: Chris Boucher is out again for the Raptors after missing the past 4 consecutive games, so his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Kyle Lowry is out for rest, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats since he has played in only 3 of the last 8 games. Gary Trent is out for his 4th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Donovan Mitchell is still out for the Jazz for his 8th consecutive game, and his absence will be almost fully reflected in the stats. Raptors are 5-5 straight up and ATS, and are 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Jazz are 10-2 straight up, 8-4 ATS, and 5-7 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Jazz are also 5-5 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

A little late, took to long to unload the moving truck.

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers -4.5.

O/U – some Sharp money has come in on the Nuggets/Clippers under 222, Pistons/Hornets Over 214.5, Warrior/Rockets Under 234, Pelicans/Wolves Over 237, & Grizzlies/Magic Under 224.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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