NBA Line Projections – 2 May 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Variance

Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Kings score (typically) will deviate about 9.75 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 13.48 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Back to back: Rockets, Thunder, Heat, Mavericks, Raptors, Hornets

Nets/Bucks: Kevin Durant is playing for the Nets, bu since he has played in only 4 of the last 8 games, his impact will be only partially reflected in the stats. Nets have no other absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Giannis is a GTD for the Bucks and is probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Nets are 6-4 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. Bucks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and are 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Blazers/Celtics: Blazers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Kemba Walker is a GTD for the Celtics and is unlikely to play. His absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Blazers are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. Celtics are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/Rockets: Knicks are coming off a 3-day rest. Knicks have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Danuel House is out again for the Rockets. He has missed 6 out of the last 8 games, so his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Knicks are 9-1 straight up and ATS, and are 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Rockets are 4-8 straight up, 7-5 ATS, and 6-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Rockets are also 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Thunder: Cameron Johnson is a GTD for the Suns and is probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Jae Crowder is out again for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Dort is out for the Thunder, and since he has missed 4 of the last 8 games, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Aleksej Pokusevski is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Suns are 7-3 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. Thunder are 6-9 straight up, 6-8-1 ATS, and 10-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Thunder are also 1-9 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Spurs: 76ers have no absences that will be accounted for in the stats. Dejounte Murray is a GTD for the Spurs, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. 76ers are 6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Spurs are 5-5 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Hornets: Tyler Herro is out again for the Heat for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. LaMelo Ball is in the starting lineup for the Hornets, but his return will not be accurately reflected in the stats. Devonte’ Graham is out, but his absence will not be reflected in the stats.  Heat are 6-5 straight up, and 7-4 ATS and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Heat are also 6-4 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. Hornets are 6-7 straight up, 7-6 ATS, and 6-7 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Hornets are also 4-6 straight up and ATS, and are 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Mavericks: Bagley is playing for the Kings, but his impact will not be accurately reflected in the stats since he has played in only 1 game since his extended absence. Harrison Barnes is a GTD and listed as doubtful. His absence would not be accurately reflected in the stats if he does not play. De’Aaron Fox is out for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Porzingis is out again for the Mavericks, and since he has missed 4 out of the last 8 games, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Kings are 4-6 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Mavericks are 6-7 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. Mavericks are also 7-3 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Lakers: Kyle Lowry is out for the Raptors for rest, and his absence will be slightly reflected in the stats. Chris Boucher is out for his 6th consecutive game, and his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Gary Trent is also out for his 5th consecutive game, and his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Caldwell-Pope is a GTD for the Lakers and is probable. His absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Anthony Davis is a GTD and probable, but his absence would be partially reflected in the stats if he does not play. Kyle Kuzma is a GTD and probable, but his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. Dennis Schroder is a GTD and probable, and his absence would not be reflected in the stats if he does not play. LeBron James is a GTD after his return in the previous game. His return would not be accurately reflected in the stats if he does play. Raptors are 2-12 straight up, 4-10 ATS, and 8-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. Raptors are also 5-5 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. Lakers are 3-7 straight up, 2-7-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bucks -1, Blazers +1.5, & Raptors +8.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Knicks/Rockets Over 216.5, Heat/Hornets Under 211.5, & Raptors/Lakers Under 219.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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