[Disclaimer] There have only been a handful of games played for each team which limits the amount and quality of stats (and these are stat based projections). This makes the first month of projections WILD. Best of luck!
These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.
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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release.
All double headers are accounted for being 7 innings.
*Made some updates and edits to the models trying to get them fine tuned for this season. I will continue to make small tweaks and changes throughout the week to try to get each individual model performing as good as it can.
Quick Personal Note: Frankie Montas for the A’s is one of the most infuriating guys to bet for or against. He can come out looking like the best pitcher in baseball or the worst and there is rarely any in between with him. I have bet both on and against him and have been on the wrong side every time.
Summary of Projections
Model Record
Model Rank
Consensus Record
Consensus Profitability
Model Consensus
Sharp Report
ML – Some Sharp money has come in on the Phillies, Indians, Rockies, & Orioles.
O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Indians/Royals Under 9 & Giants/Rockies Under 10.
Team Variance
Updated every Sunday.
What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 1 and 2 runs every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 0 to 10 runs on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Mets score (typically) will deviate about 2.00 runs from there average on a given night, where the Cubs score (typically) will deviate 4.26 runs from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.
Bet Ratings
Going to take a few days to a week to play around with this and get it to perform better. I don’t want to keep posting when it continues to perform poorly.
Check back later this week (Shooting for Sat 8 May).
Model Projections
1. Neural Network (NN)
New Model Projections
Mets & Mariners pitchers are Undecided, Defaults to league average.
How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.
*Added first 5 inning projections.
Betting Edge
If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.
2. SVM
Model Projections
Mets & Mariners pitchers are Undecided, Defaults to league average.
How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.
*Added first 5 inning projections.
Betting edge
If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.
3. Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost)
New Model Projections
Mets & Mariners pitchers are Undecided, Defaults to league average.
How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.
*Added first 5 inning projections.
Betting Edge
If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.