NBA Line Projections – 5 May 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Variance

Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.

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What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Kings score (typically) will deviate about 9.75 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 13.48 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Back to back: Cavs, Suns, Kings, & Bucks

Celtics/Magic: Jaylen Brown is listed as out for tonight’s game against the Magic, His absence will not be reflected in the stats. Okeke is out for the Magic for the fourth straight game, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Celtics are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Magic are 3-7 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games.

Blazers/Cavs: Darius Garland missed yesterday’s game with an injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, if he can’t go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Cavs are 5-10 straight up, 7-8 ATS, and 4-11 to the over on the second night of a back to back, losing by an average of 7.6 points. The Blazers are 4-6 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-4-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Cavs are 1-9 straight up and ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Hawks: Chris Paul has rested 1 time on the second night of a back to back, but as the season comes to an end I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rest again tonight. The Suns are 11-4 straight up, 10-5 ATS, and 7-8 to the over on the second night of a back to back, winning by an average of 7.8 points. The Suns are 7-3 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hawks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Rockets: Both of these teams don’t have any significant injuries that will affect the projections significantly. The 76ers are 6-4 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Rockets are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

Kings/Pacers: Barnes has missed 4 of the last 8 and is listed as questionable tonight, if he does or doesn’t play, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. DeAron Fox is listed as questionable for tonight’s game after missing the last 6 games, if he does play his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Malcolm Brogdon has missed the last 2 games for the Pacers and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, if he cant go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. In a majority of the games Brogdon has missed the games have been incredibly high scoring, with at least 1 team scoring 130+ points in 5 of the 8 games he has missed. The Kings are a fast paced team, but have been in lower scoring games since Fox went down with injury going under in 5 of 6 games. The Kings are 5-9 straight up, 8-5 ATS, and 8-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Kings are 6-4 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. the Pacers are 4-6 straight up & ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Bucks: Teague is the only significant injury on either side, his absence today will not be reflected in the stats. The Bucks are 6-5 straight up, 5-6 ATS, and 3-8 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Wizards are 8-2 straight up & ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 6-4 straight up and ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Grizzlies/Wolves: Jaren Jackson has missed 6 of the last 8 games and is listed as out tonight for the Grizzlies, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The T-Wolves are 6-4 straight up, 6-2-2 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/Nuggets: Nerlens Noel missed last game with an injury and is listed as questionable tonight, if he cant go, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Will Barton has missed 6 of the last 8 games and is listed as out tonight, his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. The Knicks are 9-1 straight up & ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Nuggets are 8-2 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Spurs/Jazz: Mike Conley has missed 4 of the last 8 games for the Jazz and is listed as out tonight, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Spurs are 5-5 straight up, 7-2-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Jazz are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Rockets +15 (small), Hawks +3, and Spurs +7 (small).

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the 76ers/Rockets Under 223.5, Suns/Hawks Under 228.5, & Spurs/Jazz Under 220.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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