These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).

Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

Team Variance

Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.

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What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Kings score (typically) will deviate about 9.75 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 13.48 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

Game Breakdown

Back to back: Wizards, Grizzlies, Hawks, & Pacers.

Bulls/Hornets: Zach Lavine is listed as probable for tonight’s game, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Vucevic missed the last 2 games and is listed as probable for tonight’s game, his impact will be mostly reflected in the stats. Miles Bridges and Devonte Graham are listed as out tonight for the Hornets, their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Bulls are 4-6 straight up & ATS and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10.

Nets/Mavs: Porzingis is listed as out for tonight’s game after missing 6 of the last 8 games, his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Kleber is also listed as out for the Mavs, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Nets are 5-5 straight up & ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Mavs are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games.

Wizards/Raptors: Hachimura has missed 5 of the last 8 games and is listed as out tonight for the Wizards, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Anonouby is listed as out for the Raptors after missing the last 2 games, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Gary Trent is listed as probable after missing the last 6 games with an injury, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Wizards are 6-10 straight up, 10-6 ATS, and 11-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Wizards are 7-3 straight up, 8-2 ATS, & 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Raptors are 5-5 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Westbrook has sat the second night of a back to back the first half of the season, but has played in every back to back since 15 Feb.

Grizzlies/Pistons: Grayson Allen is listed as questionable for tonight and has missed 2 of the last 8 games. The Pistons are in full blown tank mode, resting most of their starters who have missed 4-5 of the last 8 games, their impacts will be partially reflected in the stats. The Grizzlies are 6-7 straight up & ATS, and 8-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies are 4-6 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pistons are 2-8 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Hawks/Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon has missed the last 3 games for the Pacers and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, if he cant go his absence will not be reflected in the stats. In a majority of the games Brogdon has missed the games have been incredibly high scoring, with at least 1 team scoring 130+ points in 5 of the 9 games he has missed this season. The Hawks are 5-8 straight up, 5-7-1 ATS, and 7-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Pacers are 9-5 straight up, ATS, & to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Hawks are 6-4 straight up & ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pacers are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Warriors: Oubre is listed as a game time decision after missing 4 of the last 8 games, if he does or doesn’t play his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. the Thunder are in full blown tank mode going 1-9 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. the Warriors are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Lakers/Clippers: Lebron is listed as out tonight, but has missed 6 of the last 8 games so his absence will be mostly reflected in the stats. Schroder is listed as out tonight after missing the last 2 games due to health and safety protocols, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. I said it a long time ago and it still holds true, the Lakers offense is stagnant when Schroder is not in the lineup. The Lakers are 3-7 straight up, 2-7-1 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. the Clippers are 6-4 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 1-9 to the over in the last 10 games.

Sharp Report

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Bulls -2.5, Raptors -1.5, Pistons +10, & Clippers -7.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Wizards/Raptors Over 234.5, Hawks/Pacers Over 238.5, Grizzlies/Pistons over 219.5, & Thunder/Warriors Under 227.

Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

NBA Line Projections – 6 May 21