NBA Line Projections – 11 May 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Variance

Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.

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What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Kings score (typically) will deviate about 9.73 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 14.38 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Back to back: Pacers, Grizzlies, Bucks, & Warriors.

Wolves/Pistons: The Pistons will be without a good chunk of their starting lineup tonight, most of whom will be partially accounted for in the stats. The Wolves are 6-4 straight up, 6-2-2 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pistons are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Hornets: Monte Morris is listed as a game time decision for the Nuggets, if he plays his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Devonte Graham is listed as a game time decision for the Hornets after missing 5 of the last 8 games, if he does play, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. The Nuggets are 6-4 Straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Hornets are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Heat/Celtics: Jaylen Brown is out for the Celtics after missing the last 3 games with an injury, his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Heat are 7-3 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 4-6 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. 

Clippers/Raptors: Lowry, VanVleet, Anonouby, & Siakam are all listed as out for the Raptors after missing 4,3,4, & 0 of the last 8 games respectively. Lowry, VanVleets, and Anonouby’s absences will be partially reflected in the stats. Siakams Absence will not be reelected in the stats. The Clippers are 6-1 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 1-8-1 to the under in the last 10 games. The Raptors are 3-7 straight up, 5-4-1 ATS, and 4-6 to the ver in the last 10 games.

Nets/Bulls: Bruce Brown is listed as a game time decision for the Nets after missing 3 of the last 8 games, if he doesn’t play his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. Lavine has only played in 3 of the last 8 games but will play tonight, his impact will be partially reflected in the stats. Thies missed the last game with an injury and is considered a game time decision tonight for the bulls, if he doesn’t play his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Nets are 5-5 straight up & ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bulls are 5-5 straight up & ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games.

76ers/Pacers: Brogdon is listed as a game time decision for the Pacers tonight after missing the last 6 games, if he plays his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Pacers are 10-5 straight up, ATS, and to the over on the second night of a back to back. The 76ers are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pacers are 5-5 straight up & ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games. 

Mavs/Grizzlies: There aren’t any significant injuries that won’t be mostly reflected in the stats. The Grizzlies are 6-8 straight up & ATS, and 8-6 to the voer on the second night of a back to back. The Mavs are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 5-5 to the voer in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 5-5 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 3-6-1 to the over in the last 10 games. 

Magic/Bucks: The Magic have a lengthy injury report, but don’t have any major contributors that won’t be mostly reflected in the stats. The Bucks are 7-5 straight up, 5-7 ATS, and 4-8 to the over ont eh second night of a back to back. The Magic are 3-7 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Bucks are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Suns/Warriors: There aren’t any significant injuries that won’t be mostly reflected in the stats. The Warriors are 5-9 straight up & ATS, and 4-10 tot he over on the second night of a back to back. The Suns are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games. The Warriors are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Knicks/Lakers: Quickley has missed the last 2 games for the Knicks and is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Lebron may make his return tonight for the Lakers (there are conflicting reports), if he does play, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Schroder is still listed as out and has now missed 5 of the last 8, if he doesn’t play his absence will be partially reflected in the stats. The Knicks are 7-3 straight up & ATS, and 6-4 to the voer in the last 10 games. The Lakers are 3-7 straight up, 3-6-1 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the voer in the last 10 games.

Thunder/Kings: Battle of the cellar dwellers. There aren’t any injuries that won’t be mostly reflected in the stats. The Thunder are 1-9 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the voer in the last 10 games. The Kings are 7-3 straight up, 6-3-1 ATS, and 2-7-1 to the over in the last 10 games. 

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Sharp Report

ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Magic +14.5

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Clippers/Raptors Under 222.5, Nets/Bulls Under 232.5, & Magic/Bucks Over 227.5.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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