NBA Line Projections – 14 May 21

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).


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Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

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Team Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.

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Team Variance

Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.

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What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Kings score (typically) will deviate about 9.73 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 14.38 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

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Game Breakdown

Teams on a back to back: Nuggets, Magic, 76ers, Raptors, Clippers, Kings, & Grizzlies.

Cavs/Wizards: Garland is listed as questionable for the Cavs, if he does play his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Beal is Listed as out for the third straight game, his absence will not be reflected in the stats. The Cavaliers are 1-9 straight up, 2-8 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games. The Wizards are 5-5 straight up, 7-2-1 ATS, and 7-3 to the over in the last 10 games.

Nuggets/Pistons: The Pistons are in full blown tank mode, resting a majority of their players which is largely reflected in the stats since most of them have been out for 6+ of the last 8 games. The Nuggets are 6-6 straight up, 5-7 ATS, and 7-5 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Nuggets are 7-3 straight up, 5-5 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games. The Pistons are 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 3-7 to the over in the last 10 games.

Magic/76ers: There aren’t any injuries that aren’t mostly reflected in the stats. The 76ers are 7-6 straight up, 5-7-1 ATS, and 6-7 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Magic are 3-7 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The 76ers are 8-2 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 to the over in the last 10 games.

Jazz/Thunder: Mike Conley is listed as a game time decision for the Jazz, if he does play his impact will not be reflected in the stats. The Jazz are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 6-4 to the over in the last 10 games. The Thunder are 1-9 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 5-4-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

Raptors/Mavs: No that the Raptors are locked in to the #24 team in the NBA, rumor has it all of their starters are feeling good and well rested enough to play tonight. Glad they are feeling better, wouldn’t want them to be tired heading into the offseason. If the rumor is true and the starters do play for the raptors, their impacts will not be reflected in the stats. Porzingis returned for the Mavs last game and will play tonight, his impact will not be reflected in the stats. Raptors are 3-12 straight up, 5-10 ATS, and 9-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Raptors are 2-8 straight up, 4-5-1 ATS, and 3-7 to the voer in the last 10 games. The Mavs are 8-2 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 7-3 to the voer in the last 10 games.

Clippers/Rockets: Clippers appear likely to rest Kawhi and PG, their absences will not be reflected in the stats. The Clippers are 11-1 straight up, 10-1-1 ATS, and 4-8 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Clippers are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 0-9-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Rockets are 1-9 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 8-2 tot eh voer in the last 10 games. 

Kings/Grizzlies: Now that the Kings are officially out of the play in game hunt lets see what their give a shit factor looks like. Bagley is listed as a game time decision for the Kings, if he doesn’t play his absence will not be reflected in the stats. Kings and Grizz played last night resulting in a 116-110 Grizzlies win. The Kings are 6-9 straight up, 9-5-1 ATS, and 8-7 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies are 7-8 straight up, 7-8 ATS, and 9-6 to the over on the second night of a back to back. The Kings are 7-3 straight up, 7-3 ATS, and 2-7-1 to the over in the last 10 games. The Grizzlies are 6-4 straight up, 4-6 ATS, and 4-5-1 to the over in the last 10 games.

*Grizzlies are on game number 4 of 5 this week.

Pelicans/Warriors: Zion, Lonzo, and Ingram are listed as out for the Pelicans, their impacts will be partially reflected in the stats. Curry, Green, & Wiggins are all listed as questionable although I expect they will play. If any (or all) of them do not play, their absence(s) will not be reflected in the stats. The Pelicans are 5-5 straight up, 7-2-1 ATS, and 2-8 to the over in the last 10 games. The Warriors are 7-3 straight up, 6-4 ATS, and 5-5 to the over in the last 10 games.

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Sharp Report

ATS – Nothing to report.

O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Nuggets/Pistons Under 218, Magic/76ers Under 220, & Kings/Grizzlies Under 230.

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Summary of Projections

Summary of Model Projections

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Model Projections

1. Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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2. Basic Model

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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3. Neural Network (NN)

New Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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