These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.
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Next Project: Projections for MLB DFS. Look for periodic updates via twitter. I’m shooting for a mid May release. (NBA DFS will be here for next season).
Top Performing Models
Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.
Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.
This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp” PPG or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. The “Over/Under Trend” column was added 3 March 2021. What is shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.
Variance stats Updated in Sundays reports.
What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Kings score (typically) will deviate about 9.66 points from there average on a given night, where the Wizards score (typically) will deviate 14.09 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.
Teams on a back to back: Bulls, Nets, Lakers, Pacers, Hornets, Knicks, Celtics, T-Wolves, Suns, Spurs, Heat, & Bucks.
No Writeups today.
The only teams with anything to play for today:
- The Warriors and Grizzlies are playing for the 8 seed. Winner will only have to win 1 game to make the playoffs, loser has to win both play in games to get the 8 seed.
- The Wizards and Hornets are also battling for play in seeding. Just like the Warriors/Grizzlies matchup, the winner will only have to win 1 game to make the playoffs, loser has to win both play in games to get the 8 seed.
- The Lakers who are trying to avoid a play in game by jumping over the Blazers for the 6th seed, but they need a win and a Blazers loss.
This time of the year it terrible for betting, bad teams are tanking & good teams locked into a seed are resting guys to get ready for playoffs.
ATS – Some Sharp money has come in on the Spurs +11, Grizzlies +4.5, & Kings +10.5.
O/U – Some Sharp money has come in on the Pacers/Raptors Under 230.5, Hornets/Wizards Under 228.5, & Grizzlies/Warriors Under 232.5.