These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

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**Things to note:**

- Records will be posted after Week 0.
- I will be posting the top 3 models from last year for weeks 0 and 1 then the top 3 going forward from there.
- I don’t have the same data for FCS teams as I have for FBS, so some FCS-FBS matchups may be skewed (I will make manual adjustments to account for the skew).
- College Football is a beast and data can get very large and cumbersome, model projections are all I had/have for college football, if you have any suggestions or advice on additional info to leverage, please let me know and I’ll see what I can do.
**No games have been played, so all stats are taken from last year and adjusted using preseason power rankings.**

Last years top models

- Random Forrest
- k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)
- Neural Network (NN)

# Model Projections

## Consensus

## 1. Random Forest

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

## 1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

## 3. Neural Net

#### Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.