NCAAF Line Projections – Week 3

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

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Things to note:

  • I will be posting the top 2 models in addition to my favorite model (Random Forest)
  • I don’t have the same data for FCS teams as I have for FBS, so some FCS-FBS matchup projections may be skewed towards the FCS team (i.e. project FCS to score more than they likely will and give up less points than they will).
  • Not all Lines are posted, projections will be updated on Friday afternoon & Saturday morning with updated lines. Games with no lines default to 0.00 and any 100% probability is due to rounding.
  • Games without lines will also throw off the Edge calculations.
  • I will also be handicapping each game and posting my number that I have for each game.

16 Sept: Made updates to the NCAAF code to improve performance.

Records

Consensus Record

Consensus Profit

Model Rankings

Personal Handicap

Model Projections

Link: Click here for Google Sheets with Projections

Consensus

Some consensus picks for games without lines will be skewed (i.e. consensus picks will take the over on a game total with a default total of 0.00 because a line hasn’t been posted and it will go over 0 points).

My Choice: Random Forest

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

1. k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN)

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

2 thoughts on “NCAAF Line Projections – Week 3

  1. Is it possible to get records in the models based on the percentage bracket I.e(70-70% 2-1)? You did this for a while with basketball last season, but I think you mentioned the code got messed up and stopped.

    1. I was doing it in basketball for a while. I can implement it again, but I’d have to start from scratch. With just moving and starting a new job Monday, it may be a bit before I have time to add that in, but I will eventually.

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