NFL Line Projections – Week 5

These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

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Things to note:

  • I will be posting the top 2 models.
  • Recent injuries are not going to be fully factored in to the below projections (if they played in all 3 games so far but will not this week it wont be factored in at all).
  • Note: Models were updated after last week to hopefully return it to last years performance.

Records

Model Rank

Season ATS & O/U Trends

These results are form closing lines.

*Fixed the typo in the second line of ATS trends, was showing 2-6.5, should have been 3-6.5.

Team Variance

Variance through 4 games will be abnormally high/low (small sample size). It will even out as more games are played.

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats. The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 1 and 2 runs every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 0 to 10 runs on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Broncos score (typically) will deviate about 1.70 points from their average on a given night, where the Packers score (typically) will deviate 14.24 points from their average on a given night. The lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

Trends

Note: Away teams are listed on top of each matchup, home teams are on bottom.

ATS & O/U Trends

ATS – Against The Spread

  • Total – Total Record ATS
  • AMC – Average Margin of Cover (“+” means they are covering by that many points on average, “-” means they are failing to cover by that amount on average). Used for total record, Home/Away, and record as a Favorite/Dog
  • Home/Away – ATS Record for home or away. Home/Away record is listed above based on whether they are Home/Away for this weeks game.
  • Fave/Dog – Each Teams ATS record as a Favorite or Underdog. Uses the current line (in projections below) to determine if they are a favorite or underdog.
  • #N/A means they haven’t played a game at Home/Away (yet) or haven’t been listed as a Favorite/Underdog before today, so no record exists for that scenario (yet).

O/U – Over/Under

  • Total – Total record to the Over (i.e. 1-0 mean they have played 1 game and gone over)
  • AMO – Average Margin to the Over. This is on average how many points they are going the listed O/U line. Also used for Average Margin to the over for Home/Away.
  • Home/Away – The record to the over at Home/Away. the above automatically accounts for if a team is Home or Away this week.

Scoring Trends

Note: Saints have played offsite games due to hurricane Ida and technically don’t have any games at home this season.

  • PPG – Points Per Game
  • H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
  • L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
  • PA/G – Points Allowed per game
  • Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
  • Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the teams Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
  • #Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet (Saints thanks to Hurricane Ida).

First Half Scoring

  • 1H – First Half
  • PPG – Points Per Game
  • H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
  • L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
  • PA/G – Points Allowed per game
  • Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
  • Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
  • #Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet (Saints thanks to Hurricane Ida).

Second Half Scoring

Note: Good to ID second half teams for in-game betting.

  • 2H – Second Half
  • PPG – Points Per Game
  • H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
  • L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
  • PA/G – Points Allowed per game
  • Est 2H BOA – Estimated 2nd Half Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
  • Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
  • #Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet (Saints thanks to Hurricane Ida).

Personal Handicap

Handicapped Lines

Edge

Model Projections

Consensus Record

Consensus

Top Models

1. Linear Regression

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

2. Support Vector Machine (SVM)

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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