NCAAF Line Projections – Week 13

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These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

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Things to note:

  • I don’t have the same data for FCS teams as I have for FBS, so some FCS-FBS matchup projections may be skewed towards the FCS team (i.e. project FCS to score more than they likely will and give up less points than they will).

Records

Consensus Record

Consensus Profit

Model Rankings

Results are from closing lines.

Power Rankings – Beta

Note: These Power Rankings are based on stats and not reflective of who “deserves” what ranking. Adjusting for strength of schedule/victory is extremely difficult and I’m not 100% certain I have it perfected yet. My algorithms were used to determine all power rankings.

Offense Top 25

The “grade” can be ignored, it’s just a way for me to easily grade offense and defense on an equal scale.

Other AP Top 10 team not ranked on offense: Oklahoma St (26)

Defensive Top 25

The “grade” can be ignored, it’s just a way for me to easily grade offense and defense on an equal scale.

Other AP Top 10 teams not ranked in defense: Ole Miss (59) & Oklahoma (64)

Overall Power Ratings

Weighted 60% towards offense, 40% towards defense.

Rating is how many points each team is better than an average team on a neutral field (For reference UAB, West Virginia, & Colorado St all grade out to ~average).

Model Projections

Link: Google Sheet with Week 13 Projections

Consensus

My Choice: Random Forest

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

1. Linear Regression

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

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