These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the season and don’t account for individual players.
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Top Performing Models
Based on Average Win % between ATS, Moneyline, and O/U.
Summary of Projections
Quick look at how teams have performed recently as compared to their season stats. I pulled the stats from NHL.com from the last 2 weeks (anywhere from 6-8 games depending on the team).
This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to goals). The stats shown are each teams Goals For per Game (GF/G) both season and recently. The “Off Trend” shows if a team has averaged more goals recently than their season average, which typically indicates an improvement in offense recently. The next 2 columns show the Goals Allowed per Game (GA/G) both season and recent. That is how many goals each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” column indicates a team is allowing less goals per game and playing better defense lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall goal per game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The trend numbers are color coded to make it easier to read, Green is positive and indicates improvement compared to season average. Red is negative and indicates a team playing worse compared to season average. What the “Total goals Trend” column shows is teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring and a likelihood that they have been hitting more overs lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring and likely trend towards them hitting more under’s lately. Both the overs and unders hitting will be affected by Vegas adjusting the lines based on recent trends.
Last Years results
What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats. The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 0 to 10 goals every night will have very high variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 2 to 3 on a given night will have very low variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Stars score (typically) will deviate about 1.02 goals from there average on a given night, where the Blues score (typically) will deviate 2.16 goals from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.