These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, back to backs, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury. All stats pulled are TEAM stats from the Last 8 games (L8) and don’t account for individual players. So be aware of new absences and players returning from an absence that could skew the L8 Team stats.

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Note: These projections rely on season and last 8 game stats, weighted heavily to the last 8 games. Recent injuries/COVID won’t be fully factored into the projections (i.e. if a guy missed 1 of the last 8 games and is out tonight, his impact will only be 1/8th factored into todays projections).

COVID is running rampant in the NBA right now. With players in and out of the lineups everyday, this will skew the stats and projections.

Records

Top Performing Models

Based on Average Win % between ATS and O/U.

Season ATS & O/U Trends

These results are from closing lines.

Sharp Report

ATS – Pacers +6.5.

O/U – Pistons/T-Wolves Over 229, Celtics/Magic Under 216, Hawks/Mavs Under 222, & Bucks/Clippers Over 227.

Summary of Projections

Consensus Record

Consensus Profitability

Majority Record

Majority Profitability

Summary of Model Projections

Trends

Note: Away teams are listed on top of each matchup, home teams are on bottom.

ATS & O/U Trends

ATS – Against The Spread

Total – Total Record ATS
AMC – Average Margin of Cover (“+” means they are covering by that many points on average, “-” means they are failing to cover by that amount on average). Used for total record, Home/Away, and record as a Favorite/Dog
Home/Away – ATS Record for home or away. Home/Away record is listed above based on whether they are Home/Away for this weeks game.
Fave/Dog – Each Teams ATS record as a Favorite or Underdog. Uses the current line (in projections below) to determine if they are a favorite or underdog.
#N/A means they haven’t played a game at Home/Away (yet) or haven’t been listed as a Favorite/Underdog before today, so no record exists for that scenario (yet).

O/U – Over/Under

Total – Total record to the Over (i.e. 1-0 mean they have played 1 game and gone over)
AMO – Average Margin to the Over. This is on average how many points they are going the listed O/U line. Also used for Average Margin to the over for Home/Away.
Home/Away – The record to the over at Home/Away. the above automatically accounts for if a team is Home or Away this week.

Scoring Trends

PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the teams Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

First Half Scoring

1H – First Half
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

First Quarter Scoring

1Q – First Quarter
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

Second Quarter Scoring

2Q – Second Quarter
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

Second Half Scoring

Note: Good to ID second half teams for in-game betting.

2H – Second Half
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est 2H BOA – Estimated 2nd Half Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

Third Quarter Scoring

3Q – Third Quarter
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

Fourth Quarter Scoring

4Q – Fourth Quarter
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet.

2nd Night of a Back-to-Back Trends

Teams on a Back-to-Back highlighted Yellow.

AMV – Average Margin of Victory (“+” means they are winning by that many points on average, “-” means they are losing by that amount on average). Used for total record, ATS, and O/U.
ATS – Against The Spread
AMC – Average Margin of Cover (“+” means they are covering by that many points on average, “-” means they are failing to cover by that amount on average).
O/U – Over/Under
AMO – Average Margin to the Over. This is on average how many points they are going the listed O/U line.
#N/A means they haven’t played a back-to-back yet.

Last 8 vs. Season Trends

Quick look at how teams have performed over the last 8 games as compared to their season stats.

This chart shows teams that are playing better or worse recently compared to there season as whole (in regards to points). The stats shown are each teams point per game (PPG) both season and last 8 games. The “Off Trend” (Offensive Trend) shows if a team has averaged more points in the last 8 games than their season average, which typically indicates an increase in offense improvement recently. The next 2 columns show the “Opp PPG” or opponents points per game. That is how many points each team is giving up on average. A positive number in the “Def Trend” (Defensive Trend) column indicates a team is allowing more/less points per game and playing better defensively lately. The overall trend just adds the Off and Def trend to give an overall Point Per Game difference compared to the season average. Positive numbers mean the team is playing better recently. The “Over/Under Trend” column shows teams with a higher positive number (Positive, Shaded in green) are scoring more points and/or allowing more points per game recently, indicating their games have been higher scoring lately. Teams with lower numbers (Negative, Shaded in red), have been scoring less points and/or allowing less points per game recently, indicating their games have been lower scoring lately.

Team Variance

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats (need a larger sample size than 8 games). The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 100 and 102 points every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 75 to 145 on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Pelicans score (typically) will deviate about 9.05 points from there average on a given night, where the Kings score (typically) will deviate 13.82 points from their average on a given night. Obviously the lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

Model Projections

My Model Choice: Random Forest (R.F.)

Model Projections

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is great value, 20-35% is really good, 10-20% is decent, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

NBA Line Projections – 6 Feb 22