These are statistical projections and shouldn’t be the only thing that factors in to betting on a team, the stats only tell part of the story. Keep an eye on injuries, COVID Issues, and players returning from injury.

Like what you see? Please subscribe or follow me on Twitter (@AnalyticsB2) for the latest news and post info. Want to support the statistical data or have suggestions for improvement, feel free to send me an email (B2SportsStats@gmail.com) or you can donate via the website, Venmo (@B2stats) or Cashapp ($B2stats).

Things to note:

I will be posting my choice for model and the top performing model.
Recent injuries are not going to be fully factored in to the below projections (if they played in every game so far but will not this week it wont be factored in at all).

Records

Model Rank

Season ATS & O/U Trends

These results are from closing lines.

Team Variance – 2021 Results

What this chart is showing is each teams Variance & Standard Deviation (Std Dev). Variance and Std Dev are calculated from the season stats. The list is ordered from lowest team variance to most team variance. The variance is how wide spread the data is, a team that scores between 1 and 2 runs every night will have very low variance, whereas a team that scores anywhere from 0 to 10 runs on a given night will have very high variance. The Std Dev is the square root of the variance and is a good measure for how consistent a team is… NOT how good or bad a team is, but how consistent they are. Std Dev shows the amount a teams score typically deviates from the average on a given night. The Jags score (typically) will deviate about 6.34 points from their average on a given night, where the Patriots score (typically) will deviate 12.27 points from their average on a given night. The lower the Std Dev the easier it is for my models to project the score and provide higher probabilities.

Trends

Note: Away teams are listed on top of each matchup, home teams are on bottom.

ATS & O/U Trends

ATS – Against The Spread

Total – Total Record ATS
AMC – Average Margin of Cover (“+” means they are covering by that many points on average, “-” means they are failing to cover by that amount on average). Used for total record, Home/Away, and record as a Favorite/Dog
Home/Away – ATS Record for home or away. Home/Away record is listed above based on whether they are Home/Away for this weeks game.
Fave/Dog – Each Teams ATS record as a Favorite or Underdog. Uses the current line (in projections below) to determine if they are a favorite or underdog.
#N/A means they haven’t played a game at Home/Away (yet) or haven’t been listed as a Favorite/Underdog before today, so no record exists for that scenario (yet).

O/U – Over/Under

Total – Total record to the Over (i.e. 1-0 mean they have played 1 game and gone over)
AMO – Average Margin to the Over. This is on average how many points they are going the listed O/U line. Also used for Average Margin to the over for Home/Away.
Home/Away – The record to the over at Home/Away. the above automatically accounts for if a team is Home or Away this week.

Scoring Trends

PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the teams Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet (Saints thanks to Hurricane Ida).

First Half Scoring

1H – First Half
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est Score BOA – Estimated Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet (Saints thanks to Hurricane Ida).

Second Half Scoring

Note: Good to ID second half teams for in-game betting.

2H – Second Half
PPG – Points Per Game
H/A – Home vs Away. Automatically pulls the teams PPG based on if they are home or away this week.
L3 – Stats from the Last 3 Games.
PA/G – Points Allowed per game
Est 2H BOA – Estimated 2nd Half Score Based On Averaging (BOA). Averaging averages the Home/Away PPG and the Last 3 PPG along with the opponents Points Allowed at Home/Away and Points Allowed over the Last 3 games.
Diff – The difference between PPG (or PA/G) and the column to the left of the Diff Column (i.e. H/A Diff is the difference between average PPG and the team Home/Away PPG). Positive means they score more (or allow less for PA/G) and negative means they score less (or more allow more for PA/G).
#Value error means the team has not played a game at Home yet (Saints thanks to Hurricane Ida).

Model Projections

Consensus Record

Consensus Profit

Majority Record

Majority Profit

Majority & Consensus

Top Models

My Model Choice: Random Forest

How to read the projections: The model type is at the very top. Matchups are denoted by the alternating white/green pairings, away teams are on top, home teams on bottom. The model analyzes the matchup and projects the home and away teams score (Proj Score). The difference between the home teams score and the away teams score give us what the model says the line should be (Proj Line). The “Line” column is what the Vegas line is at the time I run the model. The “Line Diff” is the difference in the projected line and the Vegas line. A positive line diff means the projected line is in the away teams favor compared to the Vegas line, negative means the projected line is in the home teams favor. The “Cover Prob” uses a normal distribution and the teams variance to project each teams probability to cover the listed Vegas line. Same thing for totals, “Proj Total” is the sum of the projected scores, “Line Total” is the listed Vegas total for the game, the difference between the two, and the probability to go over or stay under denoted by “O” and “U”.

Betting Edge

If you don’t understand what you are looking at, I recommend reading my post about betting tips. The percentages show the betting Edge, which is the cover prob (from above) minus the implied probability (-110 odds implied prob is 52.4%). If a team has a 92.4% chance to win and a 52.4% implied probability (or -110 odds), the Edge is 40%. The Edge alone doesn’t mean you should blindly bet it. To quantify, >35% is Incredible value, 20-35% is great, 10-20% is good, <10 is ok value, blanks are negative value. ML is moneyline.

NFL Line Projections – 2022 – Week 4

Records

Season ATS & O/U Trends

Team Variance – 2021 Results